The
confluence of a public sector strike, a manufacturing strike and an
investor strike could combine to bring the Turkish government to its
knees.
For
days, Turkey has been rocked by massive street demonstrations and
violent clashes between protesters and police. Ever since authorities brutally uprooted
a peaceful sit-in in Istanbul’s Gezi Park, which the government intends
to destroy as part of its urban ‘renovation’ projects, millions of
Turks have taken to the streets in what amounts to nothing less than a
spontaneous popular insurrection against the authoritarian neoliberalism
of prime minister Erdogan’s Islamist government and a nationwide
uprising for real democracy.
Now the
obvious question on everyone’s lips is simple: what’s next? The honest
answer is that it’s simply to early to tell. One development, however —
largely overlooked by the mainstream media so far — might change
everything. Historical “coincidence” has it that two major Turkish
unions have independently announced two strikes
for June: one by the confederation of public sector workers and one by
the metal workers’ union. The former represents civil servants; the
latter represents the workers of Turkey’s main manufacturing export
engine.
As BBC Newsnight editor Paul Mason writes in his latest blog post, and as I argued in an earlier analysis
of the ongoing protests, all eyes are now on the workers — for it is
they who hold the key to the insurrectionary gateway that could turn
this popular uprising into a full-blown revolutionary event. After all,
Mubarak’s government in Egypt only fell after the young middle-class
radicals who sparked the uprising managed to mobilize Egyptian workers —
culminating into the February 8 Suez strike that threatened to cripple
the Egyptian economy.
This is where
the dual public sector and metal workers’ strikes may turn out to be
crucial events in the development of the ongoing unrest. On Tuesday,
June 4, the Public Workers Unions Confederation (KESK), representing
240,000 civil servants, will hold a 48-hour “warning strike”
to protest “state terror” in the face of peaceful popular dissent. The
strike had already been called last month but happens to coincide with
the ongoing protests. If it is to be truly effective, however, this
action needs to be turned into an indefinite general strike.
The Türk Metal Union has similarly been mulling a strike
for June, although it is not yet known if and when it will take place.
This strike could be the real game-changer. If the metal workers’ union
manages to mobilize anything close to its 115,000 membership, the strike
could paralyze
the single most important export engine of Turkey’s manufacturing
sector. Taken together, these two strikes could bring to a halt not only
large parts of the the state apparatus but also the industrial base,
putting major pressure on the government to back down.
Meanwhile, the stock market is collapsing,
losing over 10 percent on Monday alone, hinting at investor fears that
Turkey may no longer be the regional role model and capital safe haven
it was once touted to be. Over the past decade, Turkey witnessed an
investment boom of epic proportions, turning the country into Europe’s
fastest-growing economy. Most of the recent inflows, however, are those
of Arab sheiks who fear that their investments are no longer safe in
Europe due to both the eurozone crisis and a clampdown on ‘dictatorial’
bank accounts.
These sheiks may now
wish to deposit their money outside of Turkey, triggering a sudden
evaporation of the financial base upon which the Turkish economic
miracle of the past years ultimately rested. In other words, the ongoing
popular uprising may trigger consequences far beyond those currently
foreseen by most Western media commentators. The economy, as always, is
the Achilles heel of the capitalist state, and by striking right at the
heart of the process of capital accumulation the people can
significantly weaken the government.
In the end, all of this comes down to a simple notion that I have expressed in a number of recent writings, including this conference paper.
The capitalist state — regardless of whether it is developing or
developed, democratic or dictatorial — is structurally dependent on
capital. Without the constant circulation of investment in the economy,
the state simply risks collapse. This is why a triple public sector
strike, manufacturing sector strike and investor strike could be the
unholy trinity that brings Erdogan’s authoritarian government to its
knees.
Again, as I emphasized in my more extensive analysis
of the protests and the prospects of revolutionary change in Turkey,
all of this remains undetermined. The future is yet to be written. But
the historical confluence of popular unrest in the streets, labor
strikes in the public sector and manufacturing industry, and investor
panic in the stock market may combine into a toxic potion that could
take Turkey far beyond even the wildest dreams of those currently
assembled in the streets. Again, all eyes are on the workers.
Turkish protests show no sign of abating — in pictures
As
the social unrest in Turkey enters its fifth day, a collection of
striking photos by ActiveStills reveals that the protests show no sign
of abating.
Photos by Oren Ziv/Activestills.org
No comments:
Post a Comment